The preliminary yearend Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) report from the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity shows the Ocean State holding on to 48th place in the country despite a hit to its jobs and employment numbers. In part, this result derived from improved income numbers, which lag by a quarter and may moderate when the full year is included in a final result for 2016.

Eight of the 13 datapoints used for the index have been newly updated. Employment was down 803 from the previously recorded number, while labor force fell 2,199 and RI-based jobs slipped by 600. (Note that these are calculated with pre-revision data for the prior month.) Medicaid enrollment numbers, now available through November, increased by 5,157, perhaps resulting from UHIP and HealthSource RI’s open enrollment period. Within the index that increase was offset by a 2,608 reduction in SNAP enrollment and a 199 reduction in TANF. (Note that these results predate UHIP, which may drive them up when fully functional.) Meanwhile, annualized state and local tax collections were up by $24 million, but personal income was up $802 million.

The first chart below shows Rhode Island still in the last position in New England. As the only two New England states to move in the rankings, Maine and Connecticut managed to increase their distance from Vermont and Massachusetts, respectively. New Hampshire remained 1st in the nation, with Maine a distant second, at 19th, now two places ahead of Vermont, at 21st. Connecticut moved up two to 32nd, outpacing Massachusetts, at 35th.

The second chart shows the gap between Rhode Island and New England and the United States on JOI. The Ocean State lost ground against both averages. Rhode Island also lost ground with growing gaps on the unemployment rate (third chart).

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

• Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): RI remained at 39th.
• Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained at 39th.
• Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI moved up one to 46th.

With the release of new state and local taxation data from the U.S. Census, Rhode Island fell back to 48th for the August Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI). The Ocean State’s second-quarter increase in taxes over the first quarter compared with New York’s decrease made the difference, leading Rhode Island to lose ground against the U.S. and New England averages. In all, six of 13 datapoints are new the August report.

In Rhode Island, employment was up 1,275 from the previously recorded number, labor force up 1,770, and RI-based jobs down 100. (Note that these are calculated with pre-revision data for the prior month.) Medicaid enrollment increased by 1,243, while SNAP decreased by 711. As mentioned above, second-quarter state and local taxes were up $179 million from the prior quarter.

The biggest shift in the first chart, showing the six New England states in the national race, is Vermont’s big fall to fifth in the region (from 19th to 44th in the nation), above only Rhode Island. The reason is a large increase in Vermont’s state and local taxes, which were up by a factor of three, suggesting an issue of timing that might reverse for the next quarter. Although not as dramatic, New Hampshire has seen similar fluctuations, and returned to 1st in the nation, from 3rd last month. Thanks to Vermont, Connecticut is now third in New England, which is 33rd in the country (up three slots). Maine slipped a bit, to 20th in the nation, from 17th, while Massachusetts gained two spots, hitting 35th.

The second chart shows the gap between Rhode Island and New England as well as the United States, which expanded this month. By contrast, Rhode Island’s gap shrunk on the unemployment rate (third chart).

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

• Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): RI moved forward two slots to 36th place.
• Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained at 39th.
• Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI moved up two spaces to 44th.

For the June Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), nine out of 13 datapoints had new numbers, leading to some more-significant changes than usual… although not in Rhode Island, which remains stagnant. Even where the Ocean State’s underlying results were positive, its position relative to the rest of the country worsened, leaving no change in its rankings, including its 48th overall position. For comparison, the state’s unemployment rate slipped one rank, to 37th.

The three monthly employment datapoints saw improvement, with employment up 369, labor force up 791, and RI-based jobs up 1,700. However, these still appear to be oscillating around stagnation. Medicaid enrollment increased by 2,043 from the prior period, while SNAP decreased by 794 and TANF by 677. Rhode Islanders’ personal income increased $751 million in the first quarter of 2016 over the prior quarter, but state and local taxes increased $61 million over the same period, representing an increase in the percentage of income absorbed by government.

The first chart shows the six New England states in the national race. Maine and Vermont both managed increases in overall JOI score, with a reduction in state and local taxes moving Maine to the second slot in New England, or 17th place nationally, to Vermont’s 19th. New Hampshire slipped to 4th place nationally on the strength of an increase in state and local taxes (which may have been a change in property tax reporting more than actual collections). Connecticut moved up to 33rd, and Massachusetts stayed in its slot at 37th.

Overall, the gap between Rhode Island’s JOI score and the New England and national averages decreased in June. When it comes to the unemployment rate, Rhode Island gained ground with both (third chart).

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

• Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism adequate work is available): RI remained at 43rd.
• Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI still ranks 39th.
• Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI still ranks 46th.

[Click here for a printable PDF, with a table of all states’ results.]