Jobs April 2020

Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), April 2020: A First Glimpse of the Chasm

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The unemployment chart from this snapshot gives a sense of the shock that April brought to the country’s economic system, but delays in the other data points that make up the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) make this just a taste of the full bitterness. Rhode Island dropped one spot in its overall ranking to 48th in the country, but that was arguably due to weakness at the end of pre-COVID 2019. Data for 10 of the 12 datapoints of the index except TANF and federal taxes were updated for this iteration.

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Jobs based in RI fell a whopping 19% from the originally reported number for December, and employment fell 18%, nearly 100,000 in both cases, and the labor force fell 5%. Medicaid enrollment (as of January) increased about 0.7%, while SNAP (foodstamp) enrollment was down 1.8% (as of February). Because the COVID-19 hit came all of a sudden, the Ocean State managed to improve on long-term unemployment (as of March), but experienced a 4% increase in marginally attached workers and another 18% increase in those working only part time because more work was not available.

Perhaps of more concern, because it reflects data from December, personal income in the state fell 1.0% on an annualized basis (a little under $500 million). At the same time, state and local taxation increased 1.7%, or $63 million.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England on JOI, at 48th. New Hampshire slipped two spots, to 3rd nationally. Maine fell three, to 20th, while Vermont managed to hold at 21st. Connecticut overtook Massachusetts by maintaining its 37th place while the Bay State plummeted five spots, to 41st.

The second chart shows the gaps between RI and New England and the United States on JOI, and the third chart shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate.

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI fell nine spots, to 36th.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI fell three spots, to 44th.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.
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Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), December 2019: Signs of Growth Foretell a Revision

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The final report for 2019 of the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) found Rhode Island still with its overall ranking of 47th in the country. Data for all 12 datapoints of the index except federal taxes were updated for this iteration, and the only negatives, compared with September, were a slight increase in marginally attached workers and a more-significant increase in state and local taxes.

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Employment and labor force were up about 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, since the first-reported numbers for September, and RI-based jobs increased 0.5%. With the national economy continuing to improve, Medicaid enrollment fell 3.2%, while TANF (cash welfare) rolls shrank by 24.0%. SNAP enrollment was down 0.3%. The Ocean State had 16.5% fewer residents who counted as long-term unemployed and 7.8% fewer who were working only part time because more work was not available. However, the number counting as marginally attached increased 2.1%.

When it comes to money, personal income was up a modest 0.3% on an annualized basis, which amounted to $161 million more income. However, state and local taxation increased 1.4%, or $50 million, resulting not only from the increased income, but also increases in taxation after recent legislative sessions.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England on JOI, at 47th. New Hampshire held the 1st spot, nationally. Maine improved its standing two spots, to 17th, while Vermont continued to slip, to 21st. Massachusetts moved up a step to 36th, and Connecticut advanced to 37th. The second chart shows the gaps between RI and New England and the United States on JOI, and the third chart shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate.

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI advanced five spots, to 27th.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained 41st.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.

Click here for the corresponding employment post on the Ocean State Current.

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Rhode Island still held its overall ranking of 47th in the country on the September 2019 third quater Jobs & Opportunity Index.

Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), September 2019: Hanging on While the Country Advances

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As the third quarter of 2019 came to a close, Rhode Island still held its overall ranking of 47th in the country on the Rhode Island Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) but was basically tied with 48th place Louisiana. Data for all 12 datapoints of the index except federal taxes were updated for this iteration, and RI benefited by the fact that it was finally able to report data for SNAP (foodstamps), which it had not done for two-and-a-half years thanks to the UHIP debacle.

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Compared with June, RI improved on most measures. Employment and labor force were up about 0.6% since the first-reported numbers for June, with RI-based jobs increasing a more-modest 0.3%. Correspondingly, Medicaid enrollment fell 0.8%, while TANF (cash welfare) rolls shrank by 8.0%. SNAP enrollment was down 4.0%, although that is from the number as reported ever since February 2017. The Ocean State had 2.3% fewer residents who counted as long-term unemployed and 3.8% fewer who were working only part time because more work was not available. However, the number counting as marginally attached increased 23.7%.

The picture is also mixed when it comes to money. Personal income was up 3.9% on an annualized basis, which amounted to $1.8 billion more income. However, state and local taxation increased 10.5%, or $349 million, resulting not only from the increased income, but also expansive changes to tax policy.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England on JOI, at 47th for September 2019. New Hampshire returned to 1st nationally. Vermont and Maine slipped, to 14th and 19th, respectively. Massachusetts remained 37th. However, Connecticut advanced to 38th.

Rhode Island still held its overall ranking of 47th in the country on the September 2019 third quater Jobs & Opportunity Index.

The second chart shows the gaps between RI and New England and the United States on JOI for September 2019, and the third chart shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate.

Rhode Island still held its overall ranking of 47th in the country on the September 2019 third quater Jobs & Opportunity Index.
Rhode Island still held its overall ranking of 47th in the country on the September 2019 third quater Jobs & Opportunity Index.

Results for the three underlying Jobs & Opportunity Index factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI fell three spots, to 32nd.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI advanced two, to 41st.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.

Click here for the corresponding employment post on the Ocean State Current.

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Employment Rate Rhode Island Jobs April 2019

Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), April 2019: The Consequences of Treading Water

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In an unusual circumstance 11 of the 12 datapoints used for the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) were updated for April, and the end result was not a happy one. RI overtook Louisiana in 2017 to claim the 47th rank in the country after five years at 48. For the month of April, RI has lost that gain, despite improved numbers by five measures.

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Employment was not one of those five, down another 269 people from the first-reported number for March, and the labor force dropped yet another 1,009. Jobs based within the state represented a bright spot, with an increase of 5,400. Alternate measures of unemployment gave RI two more positive developments, with long-term unemployment down 600 and marginal attachment to the labor force down 200. However, this seems likely to have been caused by worker exits. This more-negative interpretation is justified by the fact that people who are involuntarily working part time increased by 1,100.

On the welfare side, the Ocean State had 5,209 fewer people on Medicaid, which is positive. However, enrollment in TANF (welfare) was up 407, and the state still cannot manage to update its SNAP (food stamps) data, which haven’t moved since February 2017. The taxation picture is mixed. The federal government collected almost $200 million less from Rhode Islanders, but state and local taxation increased by $41 million.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England on JOI, at 48th. New Hampshire leads the region, in 3rd place, nationally. Vermont fell two spots, to 14th place, while Maine held steady in 18th. Massachusetts also remained in place, at 36th, but Connecticut dropped two, to 44th.

Race To First Place Jobs & Opportunity Index Rhode Island, New England Jobs April 2019

The second chart shows the gaps between RI and New England and the United States on JOI, and the third chart shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate. RI’s gap improved slightly in all cases.

Scores on Jobs & Opportunity Index- Rhode Island, New England, United States Jobs April 2019
Unemployment Rate Jobs & Opportunity Index- Rhode Island, New England, United States Jobs April 2019

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI fell four spots, to 28th.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI fell six spots, to 48th.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.

Click here for the corresponding employment situation post on the Ocean State Current.

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Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), March 2019: In Need of a Turnaround… Soon

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Although its rank did not change, March was not a good month for Rhode Island on the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI). With four of the 12 datapoints’ changing, RI is still 47th in the country, but slippage in employment and income brings a warning sign of things that might be yet to come.

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Employment was down another 521 people from the first-reported number for Feburary, and the labor force dropped 1,234. Jobs based within the state showed an increase of 300, but the prior number has since been revised up, so the official news is no change.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released quarterly data for personal income in each state, and Rhode Island is the only one to show a decrease from the first-reported number for the prior quarter. We should note, however, that the numbers from last quarter have been revised down enough that the decrease actually shows as an increase in the official data.

We should also note that Rhode Island remains the only state that is unable to report estimates for monthly enrollment in the federal SNAP program (foodstamps). Until this problem is repaired, we will simply hold Rhode Island’s enrollment at the last-reported level, which is from February 2017.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England on JOI, at 47th. In New England, New Hampshire leads the region, in 3rd place, nationally. Vermont fell a spot, to 12th place, while Maine held steady in 18th. Massachusetts and Connecticut also held their positions, at 36th and 42nd, respectively

Rhode Island Jobs March 2019 New England Race To National First Place

The second chart shows the gaps between RI and New England and the United States on JOI, and the third chart shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate. RI’s gap improved slightly in all cases.

Rhode Island Jobs March 2019 New England Scores on Jobs & Opportunity Index
Rhode Island Unemployment Rate, Jobs March 2019, New England Jobs & Opportunity Index

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI remained 24th.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained 42nd.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.
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Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), February 2019: Employment and Jobs Turn Down

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Given the short time between reports, only three of the 12 datapoints of the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) have changed for February, but the changes are important. After a disappointing downward revision of Rhode Island’s employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) wiped away most of the employment progress Rhode Islanders had made in 2018, February showed an additional downturn. That downturn didn’t change the index ranking or the subrankings, so the Ocean State is still 47th in the country.

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Employment was down another 570 people from the first-reported number for January, and the labor force dropped 951. An additional 1,400 jobs based within the state joined the 9,000 that disappeared the month before.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England on JOI. Although underlying scores moved, the three measures that changed did not cause any variation in rank from the month before across the country.

In New England, New Hampshire leads the region, in 3rd place, nationally. Vermont remained in 12th place, and Maine in 18th. Massachusetts is still 36th, and Connecticut stands at 42nd.

New England Jobs February 2019 Race To First Place

The second chart shows the gaps between RI and New England and the United States on JOI, both staying about the same. That was true of the third chart, also, which shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate.

United States Jobs February 2019 Scores
Unemployment Rate Rhode Island Jobs February 2019

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI remained 24th.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained 42nd.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.

See here for the corresponding post focusing on employment from the Ocean State Current.

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Jobs & Opportunity Index November 2018 update- employment down 190 from the first-reported number for October, labor force dropped 208. RI in 47th place.

Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), November 2018: Employment and Income Diverging

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November’s data for the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) paints a bit of a mixed picture. The Ocean State is still 47th in the country, with seven of the 12 datapoints in the index updated. (Rhode Island remains the only state not updating its SNAP [food stamp] data, thanks to UHIP, although positive news suggest this may soon change.)

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Employment was down 190 people from the first-reported number for October, and the labor force dropped 208. The number of jobs in the state also dropped, by 400. Turning to the financial results that make up JOI’s Prosperity Factor, total personal income in Rhode Island increased by an annualized $359 million from the prior number, while state and local tax collections increased $71 million. On the hopeful side, the number of Rhode Islanders relying on Medicaid decreased by 1,490 enrollees.

The first chart shows RI remaining last in New England. New Hampshire leads the region, in 3rd place, nationally. Vermont held 13th place, but Maine lost the step it had taken last month and fell back to 16th. Massachusetts and Connecticut both remained in place at 36th and 40th, respectively.

The second chart shows the gaps between RI and both New England and the United States on JOI, which both increased in November. The third chart shows the gaps in the official unemployment rate, which both decreased slightly.

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (optimism that adequate work is available): RI remained 26th.
  • Freedom Factor (the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained 41st.
  • Prosperity Factor (the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained 47th.
Click for full PDF including national table