Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), October 2016 Lagging on Long-Term Unemployment; Leading with Welfare

For the October Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) report from the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity, our methodology changed slightly. All numbers in the Prosperity Factor (income over taxes) are now annualized.The change made no ranking difference for Rhode Island, which remains 48th, but Vermont did move back into third place in the New England race.

Of the 13 datapoints used for the index, nine are updated for the October report, including measures of long-term employment weakness, on which Rhode Island did poorly, compared with the rest of the country. Employment was up 292 from the previously recorded number, while labor force fell 188, and RI-based jobs increased by 2,200. (Note that these are calculated with pre-revision data for the prior month, but using our new methodology.) Medicaid enrollment increased by 3,183 and SNAP by 267, although TANF dropped by 98. Long-term unemployment was down 300 people and marginally attached workers 100, but the number of Rhode Islanders working part-time against their will remained exactly the same.

The first chart at right shows Rhode Island still hopelessly the last state in New England on JOI. New England experienced a mix of improved and declining JOI scores. New Hampshire remained 1st in the nation, and Maine held firm at 20th. Vermont moved up two slots, to 21st, on Maine’s heals. Connecticut moved in the other direction, falling to 34th in the country, while Massachusetts moved up two, to 35th.

The second chart at right shows the gap between Rhode Island and New England as well as the United States, with the Ocean State gaining slightly on the U.S., but slipping against the region. However, Rhode Island’s gap worsened on the unemployment rate (third chart).

Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

• Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): RI fell from 36th to 39th.
• Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained at 39th.
• Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained at 47th by this factor.