Tax hikes will cause a loss in jobs

Governor’s proposed Tax Hikes will Harm already Fragile Economy

Tax Increases Will Cost Jobs and Return Far Less than expected

Tax Plan Analysis

Download the entire Policy Analysis here … including detailed tables and additional information.

In late January 2012,Rhode Island’s Governor proposed a new budget that included a number of tax and fee increases, with the goal of balancing the state’s chronic budget deficits. In order to properly assess the impact of such hikes on the state’s economy, the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity conducted a detailed, economic analysis, utilizing the Center’s dynamic tax modeling tool, RI-STAMP.

The Governor’s plan attempts to address the perpetual budget deficit by cutting some spending and raising some taxes. As demonstrated by RI-STAMP, this path will produce negative consequences.

 Analysis

To best simulate the Governor’s tax proposal, the following revenue targets were entered into RI-STAMP.

  •  $69.7 million increase in Sales Tax revenues via expansion of the base, with tax increases in some sectors
  • * $13.6 million increase in motor vehicle registration fees was input as a Fuel Tax increase
  • $7 million increase in revenues from smoking products and other items entered as a Cigarette Tax
  • $3.8 million in other misc. taxes & fees were not included in the projection

After running these inputs through the RI-STAMP algorithm, the negative economic consequences of the proposed tax and fee increases become clear. Full details can be found in the table on the following page, but in summary:

  •  The expected total revenue increases of $95 million are not attained, as tax increases depress overall economic activity … the state will see only a $35 million increase in revenues.
  • Over 1400 private sector jobs will be lost
  • Municipalities will lose $9.75 million in revenues due to lower commercial property taxes, as a consequence of lower overall economic activity
  • The State will lose almost 1% in overall Gross State Product
  • Investment in the State will drop by $27 Million

Because a sales tax increase would makeRhode Islandeven less competitive with its regional neighbors, and nationally overall, consumer and entrepreneurial behavior would be significantly altered, resulting in lower economic activity and actually worsening the state’s economic plight. Municipalities, all too often overlooked, will also suffer a loss in revenues from this unintended consequence.

 Balancing the budget is the wrong goal; and tax increases are precisely the wrong solution!

 Recommendation:

Conversely, if the OceanStatewas to cut its sales tax to 5%, a very different scenario is projected to occur, because our state would suddenly become a more attractive place to purchase goods and services, meaning economic activity would increase. (See the Policy Brief, Dynamic Effects of Tax Policy)

 If instead,Rhode Islandwants to address the larger economic picture, by looking to produce more jobs and a brighter economic future for our citizens …

 … cutting taxes and cutting spending will produce a more vigorous economy!

Download the entire Policy Analysis here … including detailed tables and additional information.

Media Coverage of this Analysis:

Warwick Beacon: Chewing over a 10% meal tax

Providence Business News – URI Professor Lardaro supports RI-STAMP economic modeling tool

630WPRO – Conservative think tank says new taxes will hurt RI

Boston.com – Think tank criticizes RI Gov.’s tax plan

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