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JOBS & OPPORTUNITY INDEX – RI’s 48th Place Rank not Affected by Job Losses

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 26, 2017

Despite Disappointing December Jobs & Employment Losses, Rhode Island Does Not Fall in JOI metric – Remains 3rd Worst in Country
Most 2016 Gains Erased

Providence, RI — Despite December data that showed large losses in both jobs and employment, Rhode Island’s 48th rank remained unchanged on a broader measure of overall employment opportunity. This according to the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity, which noted that the massive exit of 2,200 people from the state’s labor force, which illogically lead to an improved unemployment rate, is actually a negative factor that helped keep the Ocean State stuck at third-worst nationally in the Center’s December Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI).

The state’s weak JOI score (which slightly improved in December to 17.9 on a scale of 0-100 from its November score of 17.6) parallel findings from another national study, the Family Prosperity Index (FPI), where Rhode Island ranks 43rd overall in “economics” and 44th and last in New England in “entrepreneurship”, which can be largely attributed to an overly burdensome governmental regulatory and tax regime.

Rhode Island’s poor JOI and FPI rankings are personified by Robert Martinez, a US Navy veteran, who fought a losing battle against oppressive local government regulations and a statewide hostile business climate that has derailed his dream of forging a better quality of life for himself by developing a successful mobile food vendor business.

“Last month’s job losses are extremely concerning. The notion that a falling unemployment rate is indicative of improved job prospects and financial security once again can be shown to be an unreliable metric,” commented Justin Katz, research director for the Center. “Meaningful long-term work and high-paying jobs that are vital to individual dignity and family self-sufficiency are not in high supply in Rhode Island as compared with other states.”

A more detailed analysis of the December data, specifically on employment and jobs, can be found on The Ocean State Current, the Center’s journalism and blog website.

The unexpected job and labor force losses erased most of any gains the state saw in 2016.

Of the three factors that make up JOI, the Ocean State ranks:
  • 39th on the Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): no change from last month
  • 39th on the Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): no change from last month
  • 46th Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): improved by one spot from last month

The Center’s monthly JOI report is based on state and local tax collection data from a a variety of federal agencies including the U.S. Census and on income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Rhode Island has not gained ground on the national JOI metric, remaining – as it has for years – in the bottom five among all states. JOI is a broader and more accurate measure of employment and well-being than the traditionally cited and highly narrow unemployment rate, which has fluctuated more dramatically in recent years for Rhode Island, but which is not an accurate barometer of economic growth or family prosperity.

Supporting the findings of the JOI metric, Rhode Island also ranks 48th in the Family Prosperity Index, the broadest national measure of family well-being.
For the JOI homepage, click here

For a description of JOI and its three sub-factors, click here.

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Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), December 2016: RI Holds Steady Despite Jobs Hit

The preliminary yearend Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) report from the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity shows the Ocean State holding on to 48th place in the country despite a hit to its jobs and employment numbers. In part, this result derived from improved income numbers, which lag by a quarter and may moderate when the full year is included in a final result for 2016.

Eight of the 13 datapoints used for the index have been newly updated. Employment was down 803 from the previously recorded number, while labor force fell 2,199 and RI-based jobs slipped by 600. (Note that these are calculated with pre-revision data for the prior month.) Medicaid enrollment numbers, now available through November, increased by 5,157, perhaps resulting from UHIP and HealthSource RI’s open enrollment period. Within the index that increase was offset by a 2,608 reduction in SNAP enrollment and a 199 reduction in TANF. (Note that these results predate UHIP, which may drive them up when fully functional.) Meanwhile, annualized state and local tax collections were up by $24 million, but personal income was up $802 million.

The first chart below shows Rhode Island still in the last position in New England. As the only two New England states to move in the rankings, Maine and Connecticut managed to increase their distance from Vermont and Massachusetts, respectively. New Hampshire remained 1st in the nation, with Maine a distant second, at 19th, now two places ahead of Vermont, at 21st. Connecticut moved up two to 32nd, outpacing Massachusetts, at 35th.

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The second chart shows the gap between Rhode Island and New England and the United States on JOI. The Ocean State lost ground against both averages. Rhode Island also lost ground with growing gaps on the unemployment rate (third chart).

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Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): RI remained at 39th.
  • Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained at 39th.
  • Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI moved up one to 46th.
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Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI), November 2016: A Quiet Entry to the Holiday Season

The final Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI) report from the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity to be released in 2016 brings little change, leaving until next year information about how factors such as the problematic Unified Health Infrastructure Project (UHIP) will affect Rhode Island’s position nationally.

Of the 13 datapoints used for the index, only five were newly updated for the November report. Employment was down 365 from the previously recorded number, while labor force fell a substantial 1,758, although RI-based jobs increased by 300. (Note that these are calculated with pre-revision data for the prior month.) Medicaid enrollment decreased by 1,369 from August to September and SNAP by 667. The enrollment numbers for Rhode Island’s welfare programs will be a key variable to watch as 2016 data is completed early in the next year. Assuming UHIP doesn’t undermine data reporting to the federal government, the question will be whether increased information finds more current enrollees ineligible than connecting all of the program brings more people to benefits.

The first chart shows Rhode Island locked in the last position in New England on JOI. Although New England experienced a mix of improved and declining JOI scores, no states changed position in the national ranking. New Hampshire remained 1st in the nation, with Maine a distant second, at 20th. Vermont was right behind, at 21st. Connecticut narrowly held its 34th position, with Massachusetts next, at 35th.

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The second chart shows the gap between Rhode Island and New England as well as the United States, with the Ocean State’s lag worsening slightly in both cases. Rhode Island kept pace with New England for the gap on the unemployment rate but lost ground against the national average (third chart).

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Results for the three underlying JOI factors were:

  • Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): RI remained at 39th.
  • Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): RI remained at 39th.
  • Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): RI remained at 47th.
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New: JOBS & OPPORTUNITY INDEX – RI’s Score Drops; Still Mired in 48th Place

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
November 21, 2016

Rhode Island loses ground, based on lag in long-term employment security

Providence, RI — Despite October data that showed an end to a two month job-loss skid and a slight improvement in its unemployment rate, Rhode Island actually lost ground and is still mired in 48th place by a broader measurement of overall employment opportunity. This according to the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity which noted today that relative long-term unemployment security concerns dropped the state’s total score, keeping the Ocean State stuck with the 48th rank nationally in the Center’s October Jobs & Opportunity Index (JOI).

The state’s weak JOI score (which dropped in October to 17.5 on a scale of 0-100 from its September score of 17.9) parallel findings from another national study, the Family Prosperity Index (FPI), where it ranks 43rd overall in “economics” and 44th and last in New England in the sub-category of “entrepreneurship”, which can be largely attributed to an overly-burdensome governmental regulatory regime.

Rhode Island’s poor JOI and FPI rankings are personified by Robert Martinez, a US Navy veteran, who fought a losing battle against oppressive local government regulations and a statewide hostile business climate that has derailed his dream of forging a better quality of life for himself by developing a successful mobile food vendor business.

“The notion that a falling unemployment rate is indicative of improved job prospects and financial security is false,” commented Justin Katz, research director for the Center. “Meaningful long-term work and high-paying jobs that are vital to individual dignity and family self-sufficiency are not in high supply in Rhode Island as compared with other states.”

A more detailed analysis of the October data can be found on The Ocean State Current, the Center’s journalism and blog website.

Of the three factors that make up JOI, the Ocean State ranks:
  • 39th on the Job Outlook Factor (measuring optimism that adequate work is available): a drop of 3 spots from last month.
  • 39th on the Freedom Factor (measuring the level of work against reliance on welfare programs): no change from last month
  • 47th Prosperity Factor (measuring the financial motivation of income versus taxes): no change from last month

The Center’s monthly JOI report is based on state and local tax collection data from a a variety of federal agencies including the U.S. Census and on income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Rhode Island has not gained ground on the national JOI metric, remaining – as it has for years – in the bottom five among all states. JOI is a broader and more accurate measure of employment and well-being than the traditionally cited and highly narrow unemployment rate, which has fluctuated more dramatically in recent years for Rhode Island, but which is not an accurate barometer of economic growth or family prosperity.

Supporting the findings of the JOI metric, Rhode Island also ranks 48th in the Family Prosperity Index, the broadest national measure of family well-being.

For the JOI homepage, click here

For a description of JOI and its three sub-factors, click here.