Managing a Phase-In of Major Sales Tax Reform

The state budget is like a talisman that government officials and special interests raise to ward off the evil spirits of tax reform.  Anything that promises not to raise taxes, or at least not to be “revenue neutral,” is said to be entirely unworkable — destined to eliminate every valued program of government.  And when they’re really stuck, budget protectionists will claim that even a reform that they ought to support for every economic and humanitarian reason is impossible because the budget couldn’t absorb the shock of the first year.  The withdrawals of revenue dependency might kill the junkie.

When it comes to dropping Rhode Island’s state sales tax to 3%, as RI House bill 8039 and Senate bill 2919 would do, the problem is not so dramatic.  To begin with, the companion bills would implement the change at the beginning of 2015, which maintains the higher tax rate through the summer tourist season and the holiday shopping season.  (The latter period on the calendar might also help to reduce the likelihood that people would hold off on purchases in the months leading up to the tax reduction, while also producing a boost during a slower time of the year.)

The following chart, part of the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s “complete solution,” shows the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity’s suggested approach to managing the implementation of this unprecedented tax reform, taking advantage of the state government’s access to two respected economic modeling tools:  the RI-STAMP model used by the Center and the REMI PI+ model used by the state’s Office of Revenue Analysis.

ricfp-salestax-genrev-3percentplan-web

The total height of the column is the governor’s recommended general fund (state) revenue for the next fiscal year.

  • The dark gray block at the bottom is the $3.054 billion that would be under no risk at all, even if the state dropped its sales tax rate from 7% to 3% for the entire year and the reform had no dynamic effect increasing tax revenue somewhat by improving the economy.
  • The silver block is the $134.25 million that the state secures by starting the reform halfway through the fiscal year plus the dynamic revenue that the REMI PI+ model projects for the reform.  (For a variety of reasons, the Center believes these results to be overly pessimistic.  One very substantial reason is that the Office of Revenue Analysis assumed across-the-board cuts to make up for the reduced revenue, which bit into areas of spending that, they claim, have a strong benefit for the local economy and, therefore, the dynamic effects of the reform.)
  • The red block shows the portion of the revenue for which the state should have some plans to reduce spending if REMI’s pessimism turns out not to have been unreasonable.  The top of this block is the budget that the Center recommends that the General Assembly actually pass.
  • The green block represents the added revenue that RI-STAMP projects the state will realize above the Center’s recommended budget.  If legislators wish to minimize the effects of the reform, they can plan for spending and program increases that would go into effect as this revenue actually comes in.
  • The sliver of blue at the top of the column is the $28.9 million that the Center expects the state to have to trim from the governor’s recommended budget as an investment in the 3% sales tax reform.

The light-green block to the left represents the $224.5 million in savings that the Center’s Spotlight on Spending report identified in the governor’s proposed budget (spanning both his suggested revision for FY14 and spending for FY15).  As the chart shows, these potential savings cover all but the most pessimistic $43 million at the bottom of the red block.

The next chart zooms in on the upper part of the column, with some explanation.  Basically, the strategy calls for the state to pass an initial budget (of $3.3 billion in general revenue spending) and then follow the monthly cash flow reports from the Office of Revenue Analysis.  If the dynamic effects of the more optimistic RI-STAMP model are proving to be the case, nice-to-have spending like grants and pilot programs can be phased in.  If the pessimism of the REMI model is proving to be the case, reductions of a more fundamental (but still non-essential) nature can be phased in.

ricfp-salestax-phasedplan-web

 

Click here for a PDF of these two charts and the full table of Spotlight on Spending recommendations.

A 3% State Sales Tax: Updated 2014 Projections

Based on an updated 2014 version of the Center’s RI-STAMP economic modeling tool, new jobs and revenue projections are projected for a proposed across-the-board cut to the state sales tax to 3%, from its current 7% level.

The 2014 projections, based on updated Rhode Island data, show very similar results to the 2013 projections: over 13,000 jobs and over $450 million in new state revenues. plus over $100 million in new municipal revenues are projected to be created from the massive dynamic economic impact that would result; leaving the state with less than $50 million in budget savings to be identified.

The 2014 projections also include:

  • Multi-year projections for the 3% scenario
  • Near-term jobs and revenue projections for modified 1% sales tax scenario (proposed by 3rd party and also under consideration in 2014)

2014 Projections for a 3% Sales Tax

To see the complete 3% sales tax solution, go to our Sales Tax home page at RIFreedom.org/SalesTax .

 

 

 

Fiscal Analysis: Math of a 3.0% sales tax is budget friendly

No Budget Cliff:

A legitimate concern for lawmakers when considering sales tax reform, is avoiding severe revenue shortfalls and managing the state’s monthly cash flow. In considering dropping the RI Sales Tax to 3.0%, creating up to 13,000 jobs and over $100 million in new annual revenues for cities and towns, due to growth in the retail shopping sector and related economic activities, it is important to describe how state revenues – in all categories – would be impacted.

Fiscal Projections:

In fiscal year 2015, it is estimated that the state of Rhode Island will take in sales tax revenue of about $938 million.

A static calculation assumes that no increased economic activity will occur as a result of the decreased sales tax rate, and that a reduction in the sales tax from 7% to 3% would result i a loss of  4/7 of the originally projected revenue, or a loss $536 million.

A dynamic calculation attempts to project the effect of increased activity that is expected to occur (in the first full fiscal year after implementation) and projects a net budget loss of only $47 million, as follows:

-$433 million in sales tax receipts: -$536 million straight-line calculation plus $83 million from new transactions.  It is an economic truth that that increased retail activity would result from the lower consumer costs, producing increased transactions and, therefore, sales tax receipts higher than the static calculation, decreasing the net revenue loss in this category.

+$226 million in income tax receipts: With more economic activity, more taxable income will be paid to RI workers, from a) more people hired, b) more hours for existing workers, and c) higher salaries and pass-through-profits for existing employees or business owners.

+$42 million in cigarette tax receipts: With more people shopping in RI, more cigarettes will be purchased in the state.

+$3 million in alcohol tax receipts: With more people shopping in RI, more alcohol will be purchased in the state.

+$27 million in corporate tax receipts: Increased consumer activity will attract new corporations to the state and would likely lead to higher profits from existing corporations.

+104 million in other taxes and sources of revenue: With greater overall economic activity and population growth, and more money to spend by consumers, it can be expected that the state would realize increased receipts from gasoline, vehicle fees, estate, racing and athletic, bank deposits, tangible assets, realty transfer, health care providers fees, and public utilities taxes, as well as increases in court, university tuition, lottery, and other departmental receipts.

NET STATE BUDGET IMPACT: -$47 million

MUNICIPAL IMPACT: +119 million collectively; every city and town is expected to see increased revenue gains, due almost entirely to higher commercial property tax revenues, as a result of new and expanded business formation.

Budget Planning Process:

A number of tools exist for lawmakers to mitigate the budget impact of major sales tax reform. Even if the projected $48 million deficit is overly optimistic, prioritization of spending leaves ample room.

1)      NON-ESSENTIAL SPENDING of over $225 million in non-critical programs were identified in the Center’s Spotlight On $pending report. Lawmakers can choose to prioritize spending so as to create the best opportunity to create jobs and can look at low-hanging fruit in the budget, such as:

  • $23.4 million to return HealthSourceRI to the federal government
  • $12 million 38 Studios annual bond payment
  • $13 million in projected savings from reduced social services demand

2)      ANNUAL BUDGET RECONCILIATION PROCESS, which routinely adjusts the budget in response to changes in revenue that often far exceed the projected sales tax revenue changes.

3)      THIRD-QUARTER IMPLEMENTATION of sales tax reform, beginning the lower rate in the middle of the fiscal year on January 1, 2015 would essentially spread the budget impact over two budget cycles, requiring less savings in 2015 and enabling more flexibility for the 2016 budget.

Monthly Cash Flow:

From the figures above, the dynamic increases in receipts in many categories would occur almost immediately, as more shoppers flow into the state, buying a wide array of products, and more workers are hired. This means that annual, even monthly, gross receipts to the state are not likely to be severely interrupted at any significant level.

To see the complete 3% sales tax solution, go to our Sales Tax home page at RIFreedom.org/SalesTax .

The Complete 3% Sales Tax Solution

Major sales tax reform for RI has evolved from just a good idea into a complete solution.

Lawmakers can now consider: the need for reform, the right policy reform idea, evidence from other states, public support, fiscal notes, budgets savings, and budget management

[button url=”http://www.rifreedom.org/salestax” target=”_self” size=”medium” style=”royalblue” ]3% Sales Tax Solution[/button]

 

RI General Assembly 2013 Session Freedom Index

Download: Freedom Index 2013 Scorecard;   legislator votes, bill explanations, and rankings 

The second-annual General Assembly Freedom Index by the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity scores Ocean State lawmakers on their level of support for principles of freedom as proven by their votes on the floors of the House and Senate. In response to IRS proposals that would limit the activities of non-profit groups like our Center, the Center released its initial version with legislators names redacted, identifying them only by chamber, party, and district (Read related commentary here). The full, non-redacted version is now released.

The index examines legislators’ votes in terms of their likely effect on the free market, the size and scope of government, the balance of residents’ interests against those of public employees and beneficiaries, and the constitutional structure of a divided government with limited power over the people whom it represents. The Center reviewed every bill that received a roll-call vote by the full membership of either chamber and selected 96 that fit its understanding of these criteria. (Companion bills only count once.)

The resulting scores give a detailed sense of each legislator’s priorities beyond a few high-profile issues.

The Center further divided the bills into five categories:

  • Tax & budget:  bills that affect the tax structure in Rhode Island and/or that relate to government expenditures, just driving or relieving the pressure on taxation
  • Regulatory environment: bills that make it more or less difficult to live and do business in the state by imposing regulations
  • Constitutional government: bills that affect the structure of the government, as well as the scope of government in its authority over residents’ lives
  • Public sector labor: bills related to the relationship between its employees and itself and the electorate
  • Education reform: bills that advance or impede the reform of the state’s public education system, in terms of both cost and quality

Most legislation has implications for more than one of these categories.  For the purposes of this index, we applied our subjective sense of the area of core effect and sorted the bills accordingly.  If, for example, a bill having to do with education seemed to us intended to secure the role of public employees, we classified that bill as Public Sector Labor, not Education Reform.

Download: Freedom Index 2013 Scorecard; legislator votes, bill explanations, and rankings 

2013 Freedom Index Findings

One hundred and sixteen (116) different pieces of legislation (counting companion bills once) were evaluated.  The Center judged 93 of them as having a negative effect on freedom.

The average legislator index score of -56.6 indicates that the General Assembly moved Rhode Island in the wrong direction, and that Rhode Islanders are less free than they were in 2012. What’s more, that result is down from -25.4 the previous year.  (The lowest possible score is -100.)  In other words, legislators aren’t even trending in the direction of the right direction. This index underscores our Center’s view that the RI General Assembly continues not to positively address the dire business climate of our state.

freedom-index-spiral-2013-web

Other findings include;

  • Average House index of -58.6 (down from -24.1)
  • Average Senate index of -52.4 (down from -27.9)
  • Average House Democrat index of -63.1 (down from -32.2)
  • Average House Republican index of -7.1 (down from 28.8)
  • Average Senate Democrat index of -56.1 (down from -36.3)
  • Average Senate Republican index of -33.2 (down from 1)
  • Average Regulatory Environment index of -67.5 (down from -49.0)
  • Average Tax & Budget index of -37.2 (down from -26.0)
  • Average Constitutional Government index of -61.6 (down from -9.1)
  • Average Public Sector Labor index of -44.0 (down from 16.7)
  • Average Education Reform index of -86.4 (there were no bills in this category last year)

ricfp-freedomindexandcategories2013-web

 

Index Overview

The Center selected legislative bills for inclusion in the Freedom Index if they were deemed to have an effect on free-market, small-government, or constitutional principles, with each bill assigned a positive or negative weighting based on the criteria listed below. Weighted points for each bill were given to each legislator based on his or her roll-call vote on it.

Each legislator’s final Freedom Index was calculated as his or her score’s percentage of the total possible points. A positive score indicates a 2013 voting record that generally protected individual and economic freedoms, while a negative score reflects the opposite.

Disclaimer: It should be noted that the total Freedom Index score generated for each legislator is a direct reflection of the perspective of the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity when it comes to the weighting of each bill. The Freedom Index is not an absolute measure of a legislator’s merit and does not constitute any endorsement or individual criticism. The Freedom Index is a tool designed for general research and for accountability, giving voters some quantitative metrics for their own assessments as to their elected legislators’ performance. 

Methodology

1) Determine weighting: Each selected bill received a weight ranging from +3 to -3, as determined by the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity. Negative weights indicate legislation that creates or expands an agency, government program/function, or tax; creates new regulatory burdens; is hostile to constitutional principles; or otherwise conflicts with the principles that guide the Center. Positive factors were assigned to bills in line with those principles. Companion bills in the House and Senate were weighted identically. To determine the weightings, the Center requested reviews of all chosen legislation from a half dozen engaged Rhode Islanders with similar principles and combined the range of results for a final weighting.

2) Determine vote: Each legislator received a +1 or -1 vote factor, depending on whether he or she voted FOR or AGAINST a particular bill, respectively. If a legislator did not vote on a bill, he or she received a +0.25 if the bill passed or a -0.25 if the bill failed. Legislators who abstained from voting received a +0.75 or a -0.75 vote factor depending on if the bill passed or failed.

3) Calculate weighted vote: Multiplying the weighting factor and the vote factor produced a weighted vote score for each legislator for each bill.

4) Calculate the legislator score:  The cumulative score for all bills for each legislator determined that legislator’s overall score.

5) Calculate Freedom Index: Dividing each legislator’s total score by the maximum possible for the appropriate chamber provided his or her Freedom Index, or a percentage of the best possible score he or she could have achieved. In 2012, the “perfect” scores are 143 for the House and 133 for the Senate.

For example, consider a bill that would increase the regulatory burden significantly in Rhode Island and that the Center therefore weighted as a -2. Legislator A voted for the bill. His or her weighted vote would be calculated as follows: -2 x 1 = -2. Conversely, the weighted vote for Legislator B, who voted against the bill, would be: -2 x -1 = 2.

If Legislator A, in the House chamber, earned a total legislator score of -33, his or her Freedom Index would be calculated as: -33 ÷ 143 x 100 =  -23.1.  If Legislator B in the Senate had a total score of +23, his or her Freedom Index would be calculated as: 23 ÷ 133 x 100 = 17.3.

To rank the legislators, the Center sorted them by their Freedom Index scores and then, in the cases of ties, by their scores in each category, in the following order: Regulatory Environment, Tax & Budget, Constitutional Government, Public Sector Labor, and Education Reform. When legislators’ results were still identical, the Center adjusted them in order of their apparent stature and power within their chambers.

Criteria

In determining each bill’s weighting, the following questions were considered:

  • Does the bill create or eliminate an agency, program, or function of government?
  • Does it give the government new or expanded power to prohibit or restrict activities in the free market? Examples may include licensure and other restrictions on legal business practices.
  • Is it unconstitutional or does it do violence to our concepts of federalism or separation of powers? Does it restrict property, speech, gun, or other constitutionally recognized rights or freedoms? Conversely, does it restore balance between the state and federal government, resume state authority over an issue under the 10th Amendment, or remove restrictions on constitutionally protected rights?

Other considerations were also brought into question:

  • Does the bill redistribute wealth or use tax policy or other incentives to reward specific interest groups with special favors or perks? Conversely, does it eliminate special favors and perks in the tax code or public policy?
  • Does it perform a function that can and should be performed by the private sector or restore functions to the private sector?
  • Does it grow or shrink the regulatory scope of an agency?
  • Does it directly or indirectly create/reduce taxes, fees, or other assessments?
  • Does it increase or decrease control of the private sector through rules, regulation, or statute?
  • Does it increase or decrease long-term debt or override or restore statutory or constitutional protections against long-term debt?
  • Does it give or reduce special benefits for government employees or politicians?
  • Does it promote government transparency and openness or does it restrict access to information that should be in the public domain?

It should be noted that the complexity not only of the law but of political theory in general can make assessments of the sort described above subjective and very difficult. People reviewing the index should consider the results to be the best judgment of the Center, given our collected experience and expertise.

Download: Freedom Index 2013 Scorecard; legislator votes, bill explanations, and rankings 

Each legislator received a +1 or -1 vote factor, depending on whether he or she voted FOR or AGAINST a particular bill, respectively. If a legislator did not vote on a bill, he or she received a +0.25 if the bill passed or a -0.25 if the bill failed. Legislators who abstained from voting received a +0.75 or a -0.75 vote factor depending on if the bill passed or failed.

2013 General Assembly Freedom Index

How did your legislator perform last year?

Did they enhance or encroach upon your freedoms?

ONLY 2 of 113 LEGISLATORS EARN A POSITIVE SCORE!

 2013 Legislative Scorecard

Watch the Great Ocean State Debate

The debate was held on Saturday, April 26 on the University of Rhode Island campus.

NOW ON CABLE TV

You can watch the first 1-hour segment of the debate on State of the State cable TV

Part 1: The Economics of Tax Policies

Panelists: Samuel Bell; Justin Braga; Stephen Moore; and Tom Sgouros

Moderator:  Josh Fenton       Host: Mike Stenhouse, Center for Freedom & Prosperity    

Time: 60 minutes The Unleash R.I. Debate Series was produced by The Center for Freedom and Prosperity on April 26, 2014. What’s Really in Our Best Interest? is the first of the debate series. This is Debate Segment #1: The Economics of Tax Policies, which includes (A) Policy Philosophy & Impact in the Ocean State, (B) Specific Policy Ideas for Rhode Island.

Broadcast dates, times and channels

Saturday, May 10 at 11:00 PM on Cox channel 13, Verizon channel 32, and Full Channel 9

Sunday, May 11 at 8:00 AM on Cox channel 13, Verizon channel 32, and Full Channel 9

Monday, May 12 at 9:00 PM on Cox channel 18, Verizon channel 31, and Full Channel 9

Thursday, May 15 at 9:00 PM on Cox channel 18, Verizon channel 31, and Full Channel 9

Note: Cox channel 18 and Verizon 31 are local broadcast in Kent County only, which includesCoventry; East Greenwich; Exeter; North Kingstown; Warwick; West Warwick; and West Greenwich.

ONLINE ARCHIVED VERSION

An online archive of the entire debate will soon be available for viewing, please check back soon. If you have not already done so, we kindly request that you register and take a short survey, by clicking the button below, prior to viewing the video:

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In the meantime, here’s a brief video overview of the debate …

 

View archived video of the great Ocean State Debate

Check back soon to watch this ONE-OF-A-KIND DEBATE on the web with some of the nation’s leading policy experts!

Are we better off with more or less government in our lives? Are some public policies ‘immoral’?

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Rhode Island Employment Snapshot, March 2014: A Boom Without Tremors

The headline for Rhode Island’s employment picture for March is that the unemployment rate slid all the way down to 8.7% (still last in the nation, though).  You’d be hard pressed to find evidence of this employment boom in the experience of living here, but there it is.

The first chart below illustrates why some healthy skepticism continues to be in order. After many years of general stagnation, February and March 2014 arrive as a sudden ramp, both in employment and in labor force.

The second chart provides a longer-term sense of the results. Rhode Island is still below its employment level just before the jobs-crash of the recession and still lags both of its neighbors dramatically when it comes to reclaiming jobs.  Indeed, Massachusetts is now beyond where it was in January 2007, and almost at its pre-recession peak, which it hit a few months later.

The third chart compares Rhode Island’s unemployment rate with what it would have been if the state’s labor force had held steady. It shows that unemployment never got as low as Rhode Island officials had claimed, and the growth in the gap between the two lines is steadier and more dramatic, with the exception of the peculiar results these past two months.

The chart makes clear that the Ocean State’s unemployment rate would have been much higher, over the past few years, had people not given up looking for work… almost reaching 14% in 2011. It also emphasizes the disturbing trend that the only reason the unemployment rate seems to have been stagnant, rather than increasing, throughout 2013 is that fewer Rhode Islanders are counted at all.

RI-laborforceandemp-0107-0314RIMACT-laborforceandemp-0314perc0107RI-unemploymentrate-steadyLF-0107-0314

The Great Ocean State Debate – Registration Now Open

ATTEND THIS ONE-OF-A-KIND DEBATE on April 26 @ URI with some of the nation’s leading policy experts!

Are we better off with more or less government in our lives? Are some public policies ‘immoral’?

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